Cross-border payments: lessons from domestic and cross-border payments
The CEPR discussion paper by Claessens and Rice surveys cross-border payments and argues that technology alone cannot overcome regulatory and governance hurdles.
Cross-border payments remain comparatively costly and slow, especially for retail and remittance flows, even as wholesale settlement improves with new platforms. The authors emphasise that public sector mitigants and governance alignment are crucial to unlock interoperable standards and credible risk management. They highlight three segments-retail, remittances, and wholesale payments-as distinct problem sets that require tailored approaches rather than a single, technology driven solution.
The paper traces the evolution of cross-border payments from front-end interfaces to back-end infrastructure, noting that innovations such as fast payment interlinkages and central hubs improve interoperability but have not displaced traditional correspondent banking for wholesale flows. It also discusses the potential role of distributed ledger technologies, tokenised assets, and real-time settlement in enabling future improvements, while warning that jurisdictional differences and governance gaps can defeat even technically elegant solutions.
Most importantly, the authors argue for a balanced public-private effort to harmonise standards, safeguard anti money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism requirements, and promote coordinated governance. They suggest that progress will hinge on the G20 cross-border payments programme and on closer BIS/CPMI coordination to scale interoperable arrangements. These conclusions imply that policy makers and market participants should prioritise alignment on standards and governance, alongside experimentation with new technologies, to avoid wasted investment and persistent market failures.
An Olympic opportunity for social housing policy: Lessons from the Athens 2004 Olympic Village
The Athens project designed its Olympic Village as post Games social housing, with random lottery selection and evidence of educational gains for movers.
A natural experiment from Athens demonstrates that well designed housing investments, when paired with cohesive schooling arrangements, can influence educational trajectories. In the random lottery, 2,000 families were selected from a pool of applicants to move into a modern, purpose built village in 2006, with the relocation organised in cohorts to preserve comparability across peer groups. The neighbourhood featured new schools, parks, and health facilities, integrated within a larger urban renewal project.
Early results show that movers posted a rise in GPA of about 0.24 standard deviations relative to non movers, with particularly strong gains among lower achieving students and in language subjects. The evidence suggests a fresh start effect: students from lower pre move performance backgrounds benefited disproportionately, while high achievers did not experience material changes. The study also notes gender parity in gains and limited heterogeneity across origin neighbourhood income or distance to the new estate.
Policy takeaway points to the potential for housing policy to function as an education policy when designed as an integrated intervention. The Athens experience hinges on cohort relocation, high quality, centrally funded schooling, and a target outcome focused on widening opportunity. While not a universal blueprint, the design points to possibilities for bundling schooling with housing to address inequality, especially in Europe where housing affordability is a rising political concern. The research therefore invites policymakers to consider not only how many units to build, but how to structure and time the delivery to unlock broader social benefits.
Six emerging market funds beat the index in most years
Active EM strategies demonstrate durability across a decade, though fund flows and regime shifts remain risks.
According to Trustnet, six actively managed emerging markets funds outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets index in at least seven of the last ten calendar years, with Artemis SmartGARP Global Emerging Markets Equity leading the field in nine of those years and delivering a long term return profile that looks attractive on a screen but may face practical headwinds in volatile markets. The analysis appears to underscore the potential benefits of active management in less efficient markets, while acknowledging that the durability of outperformance can hinge on how managers handle inflows and the transition to larger, more liquid holdings as assets grow.
The implications for investors revolve around the balance between the pursuit of alpha and the inherent risk of regime shifts. While historical outperformance over a long horizon offers some comfort, the coming years will test whether these funds can sustain performance when macro conditions change and when flows shift the risk posture of their holdings. The takeaway is not a blanket endorsement of active EM funds, but rather a cautious recognition that selective, well constrained strategies can generate meaningful outperformance over long horizons.
UK GDP surprisingly resilient in February, but the good times might not last long
UK GDP rose in February while IMF projections imply slower growth, linking energy shocks to near term policy and inflation risk.
Economic momentum in the United Kingdom surprised to the upside with a 0.5% monthly gain in February, following a 0.3% lift in January. The improvement sits against a backdrop of revised growth forecasts for 2026, with the IMF trimming its 2026 growth projection to 0.8% from a prior 1.3%. The divergence between headline activity and the global outlook underscores the vulnerability of the domestic economy to energy price shocks and geopolitical developments.
Analysts flag that while the near term is buoyant, the risks are now more evenly balanced between upside and downside forces. A sharper energy shock or persistent inflation could dampen the reaction function of the Bank of England, guiding policy guidance and rate expectations in ways that constrain growth. Markets will be watching upcoming PMI surveys, BoE communications, and any new inflation readings to gauge whether this resilience can be sustained in a more volatile energy environment.
In this context, the near term path for the UK hinges on the interaction of energy markets with consumer spending and business investment. If energy prices stabilise and supply chains normalise, there could be a positive spillover to activity. If, however, geopolitics intensify or supply constraints re intensify, inflation and policy responses could tighten the growth outlook.
A Lebanon Ceasefire and Potential Iran Peace Talks Push Oil Prices Down
Geopolitical developments deliver a price pause but risk remain elevated as diplomacy unfolds.
Crude oil prices dipped temporarily as a 10 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect, with reports of possible Iran talks circulating alongside. At the time of reporting, WTI traded around the low ninetys and Brent hovered just under one hundred dollars per barrel, marking a shift from earlier war driven spikes. The ceasefire is fragile, with reports of violations and disagreements over the presence of armed forces in disputed zones, underscoring how quickly the risk sentiment can change. Iran has earlier indicated cautious optimism about talks, though no official confirmation has yet resolved the energy market's fundamental supply anxieties.
The outlook for supplies remains sensitive to the Strait of Hormuz and to Iranian policy decisions in the weeks ahead. Analytically, even if diplomacy yields a temporary easing of tensions, the structural constraints from damaged energy infrastructure, ongoing sanctions, and the complexity of regional alliances describe a market that is predisposed to volatile repricing on headline shifts. Market observers warn that any deterioration in the ceasefire or a stall in talks could reintroduce a sharp price shock, pushing Brent and WTI higher if shipping bottlenecks re emerge. The coming weeks will therefore be crucial for assessing whether the ceasefire translates into durable price moderation or simply provides a short term reprieve.
What Next for Oil Prices?
Forecasts hinge on diplomacy, shipping routes, and regional supply dynamics.
Oil price trajectories remain tethered to the fate of the Strait of Hormuz and to diplomacy between the United States, Iran and allied regional actors. Prices have hovered below the $100 per barrel threshold, but forecasters warn that a sustained shutdown of Hormuz flows or a breakdown in talks could push prices decisively higher. Goldman Sachs has signalled scenarios where Brent could surpass $100 if Hormuz remains largely closed, with potential upside in the $120s if disruptions extend into the third quarter.
On the other hand, a timely reopening or a diplomatic breakthrough could bring relief and a reversion toward pre crisis levels, subject to the speed and extent of recovery in upstream production and refineries. Analysts emphasise that the future price path is driven less by the current baseline and more by the trajectory of diplomacy and the speed with which shipments can re accommodate, alongside any secondary effects from demand shifts in energy-intensive sectors. The market will be watching diplomatic milestones, traffic through chokepoints, and any by passes or alternate routes that could alleviate bottlenecks.
Middle East energy infrastructure damage close to $60 billion
Repair costs are rising as facilities remain offline and supply chains strain.
Rystad Energy estimated energy infrastructure damage in Gulf states at about $58 billion, a figure that dwarfs earlier estimates and signals a protracted repair timeline across the region. Fatih Birol highlighted damage to more than 80 facilities, with Ras Laffan LNG hub singled out for particularly large potential losses. The minimum repair bill is projected at $34 billion, but the total could rise as assessments continue and as equipment and skilled personnel are diverted to the region.
The financial implications extend beyond repair bills: ongoing shutdowns threaten LNG supply, pipeline throughput, and refinery operations, with cascading effects on global energy markets and investment plans. Observers say the scale of damage is likely to influence investment priorities and timing across the energy value chain for years, potentially reshaping regional energy strategies and international supply commitments. The pace of repair, availability of replacement capacity, and the duration of outages will be key indicators to monitor in the near term.
First Quantum and Hitachi commission worlds first battery electric mining truck at Kansanshi mine in Zambia
Electrification of large scale mining fleets takes a major step forward.
First Quantum Minerals and Hitachi Construction Machinery have announced the world’s first ultra large battery electric mining truck at the Kansanshi copper-gold mine in Zambia. The mine targets about 65 000 tonnes per year of copper in concentrate in the first five years, with a life of mine profile near 60 000 tonnes of copper and 19 000 ounces of gold per year. The BEV fleet breakthrough is viewed as a potential game changer for operating costs, energy sourcing, and fleet economics across major producers facing rising power and emissions constraints.
Industry observers will be watching for real world performance data on energy consumption, maintenance, and reliability, along with the potential for scaling BEV technology to other large mines. If successful, the technology could accelerate electrification and influence grid demand planning and mine site logistics across the sector.